Thursday, September 27, 2012

Will Michelle Obama Win 2012 Election, Too?

Who won the 2008 U.S. Presidential election?

Easy answer is of course, Barack Obama.

But, would he have won without Michelle Obama?

Probably not.

He took in more than 90% of the African-American vote in 2008 according to polling records.  This discrepancy in the voting patterns of the public was the ultimate difference.

There were other interesting voting trends in 2008, but nothing matched the dominant turnout of this one ethnic group making up 13% of the population.

An argument can be made the younger generation that came out in droves was the boost Obama needed to win the election.  Surely, the youth vote and other minorities helped win the election, but they were not as clearly in majority favor for him as the 'Black' vote (also, African-American is biggest minority).

Barack Obama is half black and half white, born to an Anglo Mother and African Father.  He says in his book, Dreams Of My Father, "Away from my mother, away from my grandparents (Anglo), I was engaged in a fitful interior struggle.  I was trying to raise myself to be a black man in America, and beyond the given of my appearance, no one around me seemed to know exactly what that meant."

The President sees himself as Black and sought a Black woman as his soul-mate and life partner.  

Would Barack Obama have become President of the United States if he had married a White woman?

Probably not.

He garnered the African-American vote the way he did in 2008 because Michelle Obama was prominently by his side.  She is only a few generations removed from slavery in South Carolina.

The votes he got from the African-American community were a sign of respect.

Michelle Obama's influence in the 2012 election can not be underestimated.  The election could be riding on whether the African-American community still feels the tight bonds with her as they did in 2008.  

Undoubtedly, she will be a big part of the campaign and will attempt to gather as much support from the public and notable friends, like Oprah and Ellen.  

Originally Posted late January, 2012

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