Sunday, August 18, 2013

Best Value Bet To Win the Super Bowl: Detroit Lions

Sounds crazy after a 4-12 season a year ago, but at 40 to 1, this is a team that may open out of the gates fast and never be at this value again during the season.

Super Bowl bets are about value.  The Ravens were 22 to 1 when the playoffs began last January.  So, the trick is to figure out the best timing with a team, maybe, when a team is sneaking up and laying low or after a perilous fall from the top of the division standings.

Teams have gone on to the Super Bowl from 1-4 starts (Giants) and as the #6 seed-road Wildcard playoff team (Steelers/Packers). Go figure, right?

The unpredictability and parity are parts to what makes the NFL so great.

Then, why not the Detroit Lions? They have a solid QB and Wide Receiver combo (Stafford to Johnson) to go along with one of the best Defensive Lines in the game (anchored by Suh).  They added the explosive Reggie Bush and have plenty of talent through the rest of the roster.

And, sure, players are an obvious big reason for selecting a darkhorse value pick, but Detroit has another big trend in its favor.  It hasn't quite peaked yet on its artificial dome turf.

As far as traditional Dome teams go, Atlanta is the solid favorite this season with New Orleans and Indy probably considered as numbers 2A and 2B. Detroit would be considered close and right behind them at 3 with St. Louis and Minnesota pulling in at 4 and 5 (depending on who you ask) of the six total teams.

Detroit made it to the playoffs two seasons back and had a taste, so there will be a burning desire for them to get past what happened last season and prove to the naysayers that they are an elite team and they do belong.  As a Dome team, they have many pieces in place and a overdue crowd ready to jump and scream.

Each of the 6 NFL Dome teams have dominated over the last 15 years, except for Detroit and Minnesota.  Minnesota made runs with Favre at the helm and with Moss and Chris Carter from Culpepper back in the day (one NFC Championship game loss to another Dome team-Atlanta), but none quite like the 'Greatest Show On Turf' from St. Louis or the dominating performances of Indy and New Orleans in their Super Bowl winning seasons.  And, Atlanta dominated with the best record in the League last season.

In fact, since 1999, Dome teams have lost six NFC championships and won four of them.  Indy in the Manning era, have seen three AFC Championship games, winning two and losing one.

Placing that Super Bowl bet early means either it works out in terms of value or ends up being horrible, like last season's pick.

Dome teams are trendy and they have proven over recent years to be solid during the playoffs.  If you can get it, though, look for Detroit at 50 to 1...even better.

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