Sunday, December 29, 2013

Time for a Review of Super Bowl Odds

When I lived seven years in Reno, Nevada, my favorite type of sports betting were the futures.  With futures, there are odds that payout a lot higher.  The challenge for the bettor is finding the odds most suitable to their situation with a decent chance of winning.

To predict the future is ludicrous to begin with when it comes to sports betting, but, that's the fun of it. Finding a comfortable team among the playoff teams with numbers you may like is the strategy I enjoy most. What I mean by 'comfortable' is a team that has a legitimate chance to win with a number high enough to make the bet worth it.

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You may remember that at the beginning of the season, I suggested the Detroit Lions were a good pick and that last year at the beginning of the season, I suggested Carolina as a good futures pick.  Well, for a while, Detroit did look good at 40 to 1, like for the first eight weeks of the season, and Carolina would have been great this season at 40 to 1 (which reminds me of the times I put heavy money on the BoSox and California Angels to win the World Series in separate years-only to see them both win it the following years).

Now, in reviewing the odds, I'm thinking about the teams who are going into the playoffs with some momentum.  I don't want to bet the favorites because I don't get enough of a return on my bet.  I'm willing to lay down a decent chunk of money, maybe $100-$150.

The San Diego Chargers (50 to 1) could be a good pick coming from that sixth seed.  The sixth seed has been a good play in recent times in the NFL playoffs.  The Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers both won from that spot in recent years (2005, 2010-respectively).  The Chargers are one of the hottest teams in the League right now, but I have my doubts with them going out to the cold to play the Cincinnati Bengals (20 to 1).  History has not been kind to San Diego playing in cold climates late in the season or playoffs.  

I think, in many ways, this is Peyton Manning's year to return to the Super Bowl with the Denver Broncos (3 to 1).  I'm not sure that he'll win it, though.  That's why I'm going with an NFC team as my surprise futures pick.

Playoffs inexperience gives me plenty of doubts for the Seattle Seahawks (5 to 2) and Carolina Panthers (10 to 1). Really, the last of the seeds, numbers four, five and six are the teams with the experience, the Green Bay Packers (20 to 1), San Francisco 49ers (7 to 1) and New Orleans Saints (30 to 1).  But, I think the best team for the money to bet is the Philadelphia Eagles, who are arguably the best offensive team in the league and have played outstanding the second half of the season, since starting out 3-5.

The Eagles are 7-1 in their last eight games.

They get a New Orleans team in the first round (Wildcard Round) who doesn't play well on the road and has fizzled down the stretch.  Then, the Eagles would go to Carolina for the Divisional Round.  Beating Carolina would be an upset, but the Eagles could end up with one more home game in the NFC Championship if Seattle loses to Green Bay or San Francisco.

In many recent Super Bowls, we've all seen that anything can happen.

I've seen the Eagles at 20 to 1 and I know they can be found higher, maybe at 25 to 1.  This would be my futures Super Bowl bet.

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